I have seen no evidience presented that the human brain is simply making statistical predictions.

This seems to be a relatively new thing some people are asserting, because they see the LLM behavior and have decided that absolutely it looks so human like it must act the same

You should study the intersection of philosophy, psychology, and what became neuroscience. The brain has been described in that way by those who had impact on the fields since the 1860s.

For the rest of your message, a thing being capable of what seem like “completely dumb behaviors” and oversights of things that seem like they should have been obvious doesn’t make it not like human. Those things could be considered our specialty.