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As far as I am aware, AGI does not imply sapience, consciousness, or whatever. You seem to believe it does. A high level Google search seems to suggest that I’m correct. Is there some reason you are lumping sapience with AGI?
I’m not sure if the rest of your comment presupposes this, so I’ll wait to comment on where I think you’re mistaken.
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I think there is some confusion. I do not believe AGI implies sapience, nor does Google, and now it seems that you don’t either. So who is discussing sapience?
Hypothetically speaking, what do you think this would look like?
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What it would look like is layoffs from a company without a change in output/productivity. Notably, we’re not at AGI yet, so I wouldn’t expect sci-fi levels of change.
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There would necessarily be a lag time between layoffs and unchanged productivity. And even then, if we’re being fair, that’s not conclusive evidence of AI being useful; it could just be that they had more employees than they needed.
My point is more that I’m not sure we’d see an obvious sign that AI was changing the market yet.
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Elon Musk is an idiot, and you’ve already noted that the market doesn’t track reality.
The paradigm shifting invention was the transformer (the T in GPT). If you’ll forgive a shitty analogy, it’s like someone invented a microscope and you’re asking why we don’t yet have insulin. Not having insulin doesn’t make the microscope useless.
As far as these things go, AI is improving at a breakneck speed-- hence why so many people in the field are begging for a pause in development. We don’t really understand why this technology works as well as if does, and that has a lot of people worried that we’re going to do something dangerous without understanding what we did.