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You evidently do not understand the technology. LLMs inherently cannot reach AGI or anything resembling a thought process. And they scale poorly. Tons of compute are thrown at it to make the illusion marginally better. None of the inherent problems have been solved.
You could just as well burn money in front of a photorealistic painting in the hope it turns alive. No matter the amount of money you burn, it never will. Same with LLMs.
I don’t think the person you’re responding to is making any claims about AGI. But the fact is, the models are far, far more capable then they were even 3 years ago. I think that has more to do with the harnesses we have now that it does with the models. The models are a bit better (and way bigger) but the harness is where the capability comes from. Software dev has changed significantly in most places because the fact is, this shit is useful for those tasks. People, appropriately or not, are trying to apply that to every office job basically.
I don’t think that’s gonna pan out for anthropic or open AI financially, especially in the long term. But there has been a lot of progress in capability in the last 2-3 years. I think they’re right that if the timing works out badly, many employers could overcommit to AI and then collapse before they can correct once the bubble pops.