take the Maine race all the way from “100% going to win” to “100% going to lose”

It didn’t happen within six weeks of the election, so there’s a good chance all this news gets flushed down the memory hole by election day. Every election cycle we play this game. It’s six months of horrific headlines, a one-month lull, and then a sudden gusher of October Surprise Fascist Friendly media.

I do think that Dems in Maine are enjoying something like a 5-10 pt polling advantage, in no small part thanks to the aggressive GOTV and organizing the state’s progressive movement has embarked upon. So I don’t want to be a doomer and say this is Collins’s race to lose. It’s a Blue Year in what is shaping up to be a Blue State.

But people have been swinging and missing on Collins for over 20 years. She’s a snake and you can’t count her out until inauguration day.