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You’re right on the first paragraph (though it sounds like it’s pulled from Wikipedia). The last one is a tiny subset of engine upgrades possible. Another is, for example, different rendering methods. FO4 added support for PBR textures, which doesn’t improve performance and only changes graphics, but it adds new capabilities. The same would be true if they add raytracing support now, or many other things. Another possibility is adding a similar technology to Nanite on UE. There are tons of graphics only improvements that could be made.
Anyway, there’s no way to know what they’re doing. Yeah, they’ve been disappointing, but you don’t know anything. You have no information on what’s being done, and you seem to not actually know what an engine upgrade could be.
It wasn’t pulled from Wikipedia, I am an engineering manager and thus I spend a lot of time defining technical stuff for non tech people of varying aptitudes.
But I guess you’re right, NY train of thought was that people tend to equate game engine with look and feel, while most of it is not that.