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China has substantial reserves and also as you mentioned has diversified their energy portfolio and constructed their domestic and foreign policy to be as self reliant as possible, but they are not impervious to sustained supply strain. Just keep an eye on Indonesia/Straight of Malacca. Interdiction of shipping in international waters. This phase is about maritime control.
I think it’s a neat theory, but unlike between the Mediterranean and Arabian, Malacca has many options: Singapore, Lombok, Ombai, around the top of Australia are all possible detours to get shipping through.
Nothing would suggest to me that the Indo-Pacific regional countries are looking to jettison UNCLOS just over yet another Middle East squabble. Of course the USA could make more stupid decisions on account of nothing, but we can cross that bridge when that happens. Blockading might be seen as an appropriate response if, say, China were to invade Taiwan or Philippines.
Hasn’t the U.S. already “jettisoned UNCLOS”??? It certainly seems like they are preparing to start boarding and seizing vessels, but yeah, we’ll see alright. I think it will be quite a spectacle.
https://www.marines.mil/Force-Design/