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Technically speaking, Point 1 isn’t guaranteed to be demanded by the EU. Most of the EU agrees that the UK rejoining would be a huge benefit to the EU. Whether that means the EU would agree to waive the monetary union requirement is not a settled question.
Furthermore, even if Brussels DID demand that the UK agree to take the Euro like all new joining members, there are loopholes that allow a member state to agree to that but then never finish the process. Sweden for example.
Nothing is guaranteed, but the official standpoint from EU is that UK will NOT get a special deal. And participation in the Euro is the default.
So UK will technically be obligated to join the Euro.
Sweden came in under other terms back in 1995, much has changed since, and such exceptions will not be likely to be accepted today.
Hungary joined in 2004 and is using the same loophole. I’ve seen or heard nothing to suggest that the loophole has ever been done away with.
I don’t think Hungary is using a loophole, seems more likely that Hungary doesn’t qualify for the Euro ATM.
Much the same way there were speculations that Greece might have to leave the Euro.
The Euro can be mandatory for new member states without being mandatory for existing members.
If UK had remained in the EU, they would have kept ALL their special arrangements without problems.
Sweden doesn’t qualify for the euro either. That’s the loophole. They’re failing the qualification criteria on purpose, because (they argue) joining ERM II is optional.
The rules today is that NEW members must join the Eurozone once they meet the economic convergence criteria.
IDK specifically about Sweden.
Denmark also keep our Danish crown, because we refused to adopt the Euro, despite we have one of the strongest economies in EU. We have an exception, kind of like UK did.
I think the reason could be that the sentiment in EU now is that they are a bit tired of UK making special demands. So they won’t be given any slack.
But it’s all a matter of politics, maybe they can make a deal, but the default is that it is required, and the political sentiment in EU currently is that UK needs to meet ALL requirements, and ALL 27 member states need to agree to give an exception to UK, which is probably deemed unlikely. It is not exactly set in stone, but it’s close.
I know. I’m saying that that’s the loophole: you can intentionally fail to meet the convergence criteria. You just don’t join ERM II. That’s how Sweden’s avoiding taking the euro, it’s how Hungary’s avoiding it, it’s how Poland’s avoiding it, even Romania who joined in 2007 is avoiding taking the euro by simply not joining ERM II.
I respect that Denmark specifically negotiated for an opt-out instead of doing what these other countries did which was essentially agreeing to take the euro but crossing their fingers.
Maybe it’s a loophole, IDK, it doesn’t sound sustainable to have national debt just to avoid being a member of the Euro. Maybe Sweden will become a Euro member sometime in the future, but I’m fine with it being when they want to, and not being forced. But I still don’t think UK will be cut the same amount of slack.
Personally I’d prefer to be part of the Euro, but this was a result of a vote on the Maastricht, and this is way way better than if we’d have to leave EU, which would be even more horrible for us than it was for UK.
We had a lot of EU skeptics when that was decided, but the tide has turned, there are no parties left out of 12 represented in parliament that oppose EU membership. UK cured that problem overnight.
I also don’t think that a country and economy as important as the UK would be treated like any member. The UK can probably get some of its favorable treatment back. The only absolute red line seems to be the Three Freedoms.
Oh, and the regulatory and judicial framework, too. That was a huge sticking point during Brexit, when they rejected the May proposal over the ECJ having final say on disputes over Northern Ireland.